Three leaf clover: Derrick White’s impact, team rebounding, and should we be worried?

Well, the In-Season Tournament was fun while it lasted. At least we don’t have to look at the courts anymore. Amongst the ugly, we had Tyrese Haliburton’s “jump shot,” which will probably haunting my nightmares for quite some time, as it usually does after he lights up the Celtics. The strange thing this season is that despite the Celtics successes, something just doesn’t feel quite right. I’ll jump into that in section 3, but first, basketball stuff.

Stat of the Week: +14.1 efficiency differential

Derrick White somehow keeps getting away with it. Every season, Derrick White’s team obliterates people when he’s on the court. This year, per Cleaning the Glass (who filter out garbage time), the Celtics are 14.1 points per 100 possessions better with Derrick White on the court. It is, by far, the best figure on the Celtics.

While White may not be a traditional stat stuffer, his impact is undeniable. Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but Derrick’s positive effect spans across multiple seasons, in multiple contexts, and in multiple uniforms. He possesses the unique combination of being able to make extremely quick decisions while minimizing mistakes. Traditional stats are helpful, but there will always be players that traditional stats underrate. Derrick White is the poster boy for that particular phenomenon.

Xs and OOOhhhhhhssss: elite team rebounding

You might be asking yourself, “is this dude about to write several paragraphs about rebounding?” The answer to that would be an unfortunate yes. I apologize in advance.

The Celtics finished 1st in defensive rebound percentage last season, but a disappointing 27th in offensive rebound percentage. The duality of man. With Robert Williams out the door, Al Horford a year older, and Porzingis set to play heavy minutes (who has been historically a poor defensive rebounder in his career), it was fair to be skeptical that they’d keep that level.

Well, they technically haven’t, but by any measure, they’ve been excellent anyway. The Cs have tumbled all the way to 3rd in DREB% — unforgivable! The good news is that the offensive rebounding has rebounded (sorry) all the way to a mighty 16th. That leaves the Celtics a very healthy 3rd in total rebound percentage in the league, up from 9th last year.

The Celtics aren’t small, but they also don’t have one of those rebounding monsters found on other elite teams like Philly, Denver, Milwaukee, or the Monstars. It’s a team commitment, everyone gets on the boards. It starts with the stars. Tatum averages more boards than Jaylen Brown, but Brown’s been throwing his weight around and boxing out more than I’ve ever seen him.

Say what you want about Jrue Holiday offensively, but he possesses the Marcus Smart gene on the glass. He’s got insanely quick hands to secure boards.

And he boxes out like a big man.

Combine that with Tatum flying in to snag boards at their peak along with Al Horford having one of the best rebounding seasons of his career, Luke Kornet getting dirty on the offensive glass (9.4 OREB% similar to Jonas Valanciunas and DeAndre Ayton), and Porzingis being 7’3”, and you’ve got an elite rebounding team without an elite rebounder.

Non-Basketball Stuff of the Week: should we be worried?

The Celtics are 15-5, one of the very best records in the league. It seems laughable that I’m even posing this question, but something does feel just a little off. The Celtics just haven’t been playing their best basketball as of late. They’re 17th in turnovers per game and 25th in steals. They turn it over a lot and don’t make up for it on the defensive end. If you remove Sam Hauser from the mix, the Celtics are shooting 34.6% from 3. That would be good for 24th in the league. We are the Detroit Pistons from 3 without Sam.

But if you look at the context, things start to look a lot less gloomy. For one, the Cs have had one of, if not the, hardest schedules in the NBA (depending on the metric, ESPN has them at the most difficult with a bullet).

For two, the shooting feels like an anomaly. Brown, Horford, KP, and Pritchard are all well below their career averages. If JT cuts out one or two of those heinous pull-ups a game (he’s under 30% on pull-ups and around 45% on catch-and-shoot), then his efficiency will climb as well. This is not a team that should be middle of the road in 3-point shooting, and certainly not a team that’s Pistons-level outside of Hauser.

If they start making some shots while the schedule starts to soften, then things will really start to click. All the better if they cut down the turnovers as well. Every win hasn’t been pretty, but the important part is that they’re finding ways to win. So, am I worried? A little bit. Should I be? Probably not.